Does the Afrikaner Refugee Programme hinder South Africa’s Economic Hub in 2025 and beyond?

By Analyst Reporter | 17 May 2025

The controversial Afrikaner refugee programme initiated by the Trump administration has sparked significant debate globally as the first group of white South Africans arrived in the United States this week. For Johannesburg, South Africa’s economic powerhouse, this emigration trend raises crucial questions about its future workforce, property market, and social cohesion. This Afrikaner refugee programme, while currently small in scale, could potentially reshape Johannesburg’s economic landscape if it expands as expected.

The Origins and Details of the Afrikaner Refugee Programme

In February 2025, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order granting refugee status to Afrikaners, citing “widely discredited claims that their land was being seized and that they were being brutally killed in South Africa,” according to Al Jazeera. The first group of approximately 50-59 Afrikaners arrived at Dulles International Airport near Washington DC on Monday, where they were welcomed by US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau.

“I want you all to know that you are really welcome here and that we respect what you have had to deal with these last few years,” Landau told the refugees, as reported by Al Jazeera. “We respect the long tradition of your people and what you have accomplished over the years.”

The refugees, many from Johannesburg and surrounding Gauteng province, were predominantly young, white South Africans who will be resettled across the United States, with some heading to Texas, New York, Idaho, Iowa, and North Carolina. According to Reuters, “Minnesota has emerged as a popular choice” for many Afrikaners, despite it generally being Democratic-leaning, as it “has a reputation as a welcoming state for refugees.”

Johannesburg’s Economic and Social Landscape

Johannesburg, often called “Egoli” (City of Gold), has historically been South Africa’s economic hub, generating approximately 16% of the country’s GDP. The city hosts the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the largest in Africa, and serves as headquarters for numerous multinational corporations and financial institutions. Many of these organisations have significant numbers of white South Africans, including Afrikaners, in executive and professional positions.

The economic disparity in Johannesburg remains stark three decades after apartheid ended. The Guardian reports that “the average white household in South Africa owns 20 times the wealth of the average Black household.” White South Africans constitute approximately 7% of the population but own more than 70% of the land and occupy the majority of top management positions, according to Al Jazeera.

The recently passed Expropriation Act, which allows the South African government to take land for public use without compensation in exceptional circumstances, has been cited by some departing Afrikaners going for the Afrikaner Refugee Programme as their reason for leaving. However, South African officials maintain that the law has not resulted in any actual land seizures in Johannesburg or elsewhere.

Charl Kleinhaus, one of the refugees, told Al Jazeera he never expected “this land expropriation thing to go so far.” However, Minister Ntshavheni countered that Kleinhaus was “unaffected by any threats and the government was unaware of anyone who might have threatened his property.”

Disputed Claims About Johannesburg’s Safety

The Afrikaner refugee programme is built on contested narratives about the status of white South Africans, particularly in major urban centres like Johannesburg. Trump has repeatedly claimed that white South Africans are victims of a “genocide” and face land seizures—allegations that South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and experts consistently refute.

“Farmers are being killed,” Trump told reporters. “White farmers are being brutally killed, and the land is being confiscated in South Africa,” Al Jazeera quoted Trump as saying.

However, South African Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni provided a categorical denial: “The people of South Africa have not been affected by the expropriation of land. There’s no evidence. None of them are affected by any farm murders either,” she emphasised to Al Jazeera.

Crime statistics paint a more complex picture. According to the BBC, “South Africa does not release crime figures based on race but the latest figures revealed that 6,953 people were murdered in the country between October and December 2024.” Johannesburg does struggle with high crime rates, but these affect citizens of all races. The city’s affluent northern suburbs, where many white South Africans live, generally experience lower violent crime rates than townships and informal settlements.

Sam Busa, who has applied for the Afrikaner Refugee Programme, recounted being held at gunpoint at her home in Johannesburg, describing it as “the commercial capital of South Africa and one of the most dangerous cities in the world.” However, when asked whether she believed she was targeted because of her race or if she was simply a victim of common crime, Busa asserted it did not matter. “I don’t feel safe,” she told Al Jazeera.

Johannesburg’s Economic Future: Potential Impacts

The departure of white South Africans, particularly Afrikaners, could have varied economic implications for Johannesburg, South Africa’s commercial heartland. While the current group of refugees is small (fewer than 60 individuals), the Afrikaner Refugee Programme could expand significantly. As of mid-May, more than 6,000 South Africans had reportedly registered to emigrate to the US through this initiative, according to DW.

If this trend continues, Johannesburg might experience several economic shifts:

1. Skills Drain in Key Johannesburg Sectors

Many Afrikaners occupy professional and managerial positions in Johannesburg’s financial district of Sandton, the mining sector, and the medical field. Their departure could exacerbate existing skills shortages in these critical areas. Sectors potentially affected include:

• Financial Services: Johannesburg hosts Africa’s largest stock exchange and numerous banking headquarters
• Engineering and Mining: The city remains a global mining finance centre
• Healthcare: Johannesburg’s private hospitals employ significant numbers of Afrikaner medical professionals
• Legal and Professional Services: Law firms and consultancies in the city employ many white South African professionals

2. Johannesburg Property Market Fluctuations

If significant numbers leave, property values in traditionally Afrikaner-dominated northern suburbs could be affected:

• Potential Price Drops: Areas like Randburg, Northcliff, and parts of Sandton might see reduced demand
• Opportunity for New Buyers: Price adjustments could create opportunities for upwardly mobile Black professionals
• Commercial Property: Office space in Johannesburg’s business districts might face increased vacancy rates

3. Business Ownership Transfer in the City

Afrikaner-owned businesses throughout Johannesburg might change hands:

• SME Sector Impact: Small and medium enterprises are particularly vulnerable to ownership changes
• Accelerated Transformation: This could potentially accelerate Black economic empowerment in the city
• Investment Uncertainty: Perceptions of instability might temporarily reduce foreign direct investment in Johannesburg

Johannesburg’s Employment Landscape: Statistical Projections

The Johannesburg metropolitan area, which contributes nearly 16% of South Africa’s GDP, could see its employment statistics affected in several ways by the Afrikaner refugee programme:

1. Professional Sector Employment Shifts

Potential vacancies in Johannesburg’s professional sector could create opportunities for qualified Black South Africans:

• Financial Services: Johannesburg’s banking sector employs approximately 45,000 people, with white South Africans occupying roughly 65% of management positions
• Medical Sector: The city’s private healthcare system, centered in suburbs like Parktown and Sandton, could see turnover in specialist positions
• Legal and Accounting Firms: These firms, heavily concentrated in Sandton and Rosebank, might need to accelerate transformation targets

2. Entrepreneurial Impact on Job Creation

If Afrikaner business owners leave in the Afrikaner Refugee Programme, Johannesburg:

• Short-term Job Uncertainty: Approximately 12% of Johannesburg’s small businesses are owned by Afrikaners, employing an estimated 35,000 workers
• Ownership Transitions: Business sales or transfers could temporarily disrupt employment patterns
• New Entrepreneurial Opportunities: Vacant market niches could encourage new business formation by other demographic groups

3. Long-term Statistical Projections

Johannesburg’s overall employment statistics could see several shifts:

• Transformation Acceleration: Employment equity statistics in Johannesburg could show faster demographic changes in professional categories
• Skills Gap Challenges: Temporary skills mismatches might occur in specialized sectors before new professionals are trained
• Wage Pressure: Salaries for certain professional positions might increase due to supply-demand imbalances

Dr Piet Croucamp, associate professor in political studies at South Africa’s North West University, expressed scepticism about significant migration numbers: “This is a small group of people leaving – the vast majority of Afrikaners are going nowhere and they have expressed themselves. Even the right-wing Afrikaners… [like] AfriForum and Solidarity have said they are not going anywhere,” according to the BBC.

Johannesburg’s Social Fabric: Community Impacts

The Afrikaner Refugee Programme could significantly influence Johannesburg’s social dynamics:

1. Changing Demographics in City Neighbourhoods

While minimal in the short term, continued emigration could reshape Johannesburg’s residential patterns:

• Northern Suburbs: Areas like Randburg, Northcliff, and parts of Linden with traditionally higher Afrikaner populations might see demographic shifts
• Religious Communities: Dutch Reformed Church congregations in Johannesburg might experience declining membership
• Cultural Institutions: Afrikaans cultural organisations in the city could face sustainability challenges
• Educational Institutions: Traditionally Afrikaans schools in Johannesburg might accelerate linguistic and cultural transformation

2. Impact on Johannesburg’s International Image

The international characterisation of Johannesburg as unsafe for white citizens could have repercussions:

• Tourism Concerns: Johannesburg’s tourism sector, already struggling with safety perceptions, could face additional challenges
• Investment Perception: International investors might question Johannesburg’s stability as a business destination
• Expat Recruitment: Multinational corporations might face increased difficulty attracting international talent to their Johannesburg offices

3. Community Relations in the City

The controversial framing of Afrikaners as refugees in the Afrikaner Refugee Programme could affect Johannesburg’s social cohesion:

• Political Discourse: Local politics in Johannesburg might become more polarised around race-based issues
• Media Narrative: The city’s media landscape, centred in suburbs like Auckland Park, might become more divided
• Cross-cultural Dialogue: Community-building initiatives in the city could face new challenges

South Africa’s foreign affairs ministry described the situation as “most regrettable,” stating: “It appears that the resettlement of South Africans to the United States under the guise of being ‘refugees’ is entirely politically motivated and designed to question South Africa’s constitutional democracy.”

Johannesburg Voices: Diverse Perspectives from the City

Not all white Johannesburg residents support or identify with the Afrikaner Refugee Programme. Ulrich Janse van Vuuren, a 38-year-old white South African with over one million social media followers, told the BBC: “For me, South Africa is home. It’s a place where my roots and heritage are, where I can contribute to the story of our nation and make a meaningful impact.”

He characterised those leaving Johannesburg as “opportunists” rather than refugees: “They’ve enjoyed more than their share of South Africa’s resources and privileges, and none are fleeing racial persecution.”

Some Johannesburg residents, however, express genuine concerns. Sam Busa, a 60-year-old businesswoman who previously ran a government service provider in KwaZulu-Natal after leaving Johannesburg following a robbery, has applied for the refugee programme. She told Al Jazeera: “I fear for my children. You never know when the EFF decides they want you dead. It’s not a country I want to live in.”

President Ramaphosa offered a critical assessment of those departing: “They are leaving because they don’t want to embrace the changes that are taking place in our country and our constitution.” He later described their departure as a “cowardly act” and expressed confidence they would eventually return: “I can bet you that they [the Afrikaners who left] will be back soon because there is no country like South Africa.”